The ECB is sticking to its data-driven approach for rate decisions. Accordingly, the Governing Council decided to leave the three key ECB interest rates unchanged, as announced in a statement on Thursday.

The newly available data largely confirm the ECB’s previous assessment of the inflation outlook, it said. Domestic price pressures have continued to ease, and wage growth is slowing. Inflation currently sits at the ECB’s medium-term target of 2 percent.

High Uncertainty Highlighted

At the same time, the ECB points to the high level of uncertainty. The environment remains particularly unpredictable due to ongoing trade tensions. Nevertheless, the economy has so far shown overall resilience, even in this difficult global setting. This, the Governing Council notes, is partly thanks to past interest rate cuts, which it considers a success of its own monetary policy.

Stabilizing Inflation at the Target

The ECB reaffirmed its determination to ensure inflation stabilizes at the target level over the medium term. However, it does not commit to a predefined path and will continue to base future decisions on incoming data.

As a result, interest rates in the euro area remain unchanged:

› Deposit facility rate: 2,00 percent

› Main refinancing operations rate: 2,15 percent

› Marginal lending facility rate: 2,40 percent

The next monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council will take place in September, following the summer break. According to economists, it remains uncertain whether the central bank will opt for another rate cut at that point. There are good arguments both for and against such a move.

For example, inflation could ease further due to base effects from energy prices, and a stronger euro against the dollar makes imports cheaper.

EU–US Trade Talks

The economic outlook and the outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the United States will also have an impact. Uncertainty about trade policy weighs on economic growth, corporate investment, and consumer sentiment. This could weaken demand across the euro area.

Whether the current pause in the easing cycle is temporary or marks its end will depend on the macroeconomic data available by autumn. For now, the ECB is keeping all options open.