Written by Gérard Al-Fil, Dubai

S&P Director and Lead Analyst Middle East Japna Jagtiani said in an industry credit outlook for the Gulf Arab property market released on Thursday that regarding the Dubai real estate market, «Credit metrics remain strong.» The top Dubai-based developers «are in a sound financial position, with low leverage given strong cash collection due to high presales.» However, on the outlook of the still buoyant sector, she says, «We are cautiously optimistic on growth given economic pressures.»

Good news for wealth managers

Presales in Dubai are breaking records, says the study. Jagtiani: «Favourable visa reforms and quality of life continue to attract high-net-worth buyers such that sales volume for luxury units priced above 2.72 million US dollars has increased by around 60% year-over-year in the first half of 2025.»

In order to keep up with a young affluent Gen-Z, Dubai’s developers Emaar Properties and Damac Properties both started accepting cryptocurrencies for some of their real estate offers. This trend means more high net worth individuals (HNWI) flock to the Gulf Arab emirate, which means fresh new clients for the wealth management departments at local and foreign banks. Emaar shares gained following the report, closing 2.75% higher at the Dubai Financial Market on Thursday.

Dubai’s luxury real estate developer Binghatti has therefore opened on July 16th a boutique in London in order to lure more wealthy UK residents to the United Arab Emirates. Among Binghatti’s clients in Dubai are global footballer Neymar Jr., opera legend Andrea Bocelli, footballer Aymeric Laporte, and most recently, Hollywood actor Terry Crews, who acquired a residence at Dubai’s noble tower Binghatti Aquarise in early 2025. The UK government's decision to alter the non-domicile tax regime could mean the former EU country could see a record outflow of wealthy residents in 2025, with 16,500 millionaires projected to leave, mostly for Dubai, The Economic Times reported.

Banking on the Saudi boom

Despite ample efforts to diversify their carbon energy-based economies, the investors sentiment still heavily depends on the price of oil. Fickle oil prices «could have some impact on residential prices and rents, as we believe there is good correlation,» explained Jagtiani, «despite Dubai’s economy being less reliant on oil. Saudi Arabia and its spending on Vision 2030 remain highly dependent on oil prices. For the G20 member state, her assessment is clear: «The Saudi market is booming. New household formation remains strong as young Saudi families move to the cities for work opportunities. Given this and the Vision 2030 homeownership targets (70% by 2030, 65.4% achieved in 2024) and supportive regulation, we expect real estate demand and prices—especially in Riyadh—to continue growing.»

Keeping an eye on the barrel

While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have slightly eased, the Dubai-based S&P expert noted that “Oil prices are under pressure. We expect oversupply in the oil market will continue to outweigh slow oil demand growth through 2025 and beyond. Unfavourable tariffs could also lead to economic slowdown and weaker market sentiment. This could have an impact on investment, spending, and consumption in the region.” Year‑to‑date, Brent has dropped approximately 8–9% from its early‑year levels, hovering around 68 US dollars as of mid-July.

Dubai's reputation as a safe haven remains in place, she added. «Historically, the UAE—including Dubai—benefited from conflicts (the Arab Spring and the Russia-Ukraine conflict), which sparked population growth and investment inflows. As long as the UAE and its regional allies don’t get drawn into an escalated conflict, Dubai could be one of the cities that will experience strong support for its long-term real estate prices and volumes,» said Jagtiani.