The SNB is responding to an increasingly uncertain global environment, shaped in particular by the conflict in the Middle East. An overly strong Swiss franc would jeopardize price stability, the central bank emphasized in its statement on Thursday. Accordingly, it reiterated its readiness to step in on the foreign exchange market if necessary.

Inflation Rises in the Short Term

Inflation in Switzerland has edged up slightly in recent months: from 0,0 percent in November to 0,1 percent in February, mainly driven by higher goods prices. The SNB expects a more pronounced increase in the coming quarters, particularly as a result of rising energy prices.

The short-term inflation forecast has therefore been revised upwards. In the medium term, however, price pressure is expected to remain largely stable – not least due to the stronger franc. Overall, inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability.

The SNB forecasts:

• 0,5 percent inflation for 2026
• 0,5 percent for 2027
• 0,6 percent for 2028

These projections are based on the assumption that the key interest rate remains at 0 percent throughout the entire forecast horizon.

Conflicts Weigh on Outlook

The global economy still showed solid growth in the fourth quarter, but the outlook has deteriorated significantly. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to lead to higher energy prices and weaker global growth in the short term.

Additional risks stem from potential supply chain disruptions and ongoing uncertainty in trade policy. A further escalation could simultaneously intensify inflation and economic slowdown.

Moderate Growth in Switzerland

In Switzerland, the economy has recently stabilized: gross domestic product expanded again in the fourth quarter after previously declining. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in February.

For 2026, the SNB expects growth of around 1 percent, followed by approximately 1,5 percent in 2027. In the short term, however, momentum is likely to remain subdued.