According to Raiffeisen, the reduction of U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods from 39 to 15 percent does not mean that the export sector will immediately take off again. «Demand is likely to remain weak in the coming months, and we expect a sluggish start to the year,» said Fredy Hasenmaile (image below) at the presentation of the 2026 forecast. Given the high volume of advance exports, a catch-up phase is not in sight.

However, with the tariff agreement «the crisis is averted», the Raiffeisen chief economist added. «The settlement of the tariff dispute was important and worth the price.» It increases planning certainty for exporters. «This restores a level playing field compared to the EU, Japan and Korea.»

Fredy Hasenmaile. (Image: Raiffeisen)

This is almost more important than the 15 percent tariffs themselves, which still represent a burden compared to earlier levels. Other factors cited include the strong Swiss franc, high electricity prices, and weak demand from the EU—particularly Germany. In addition, China is increasingly developing from a growth market into a competitor.

Subdued GDP Forecast

For 2026, Raiffeisen forecasts Swiss GDP growth of 1.0 percent, following an estimated 1.2 percent this year. This implies that the economy will once again fall short of its growth potential. Expectations for Europe are similar, with growth projected at 1.0 percent after 1.3 percent in 2025. In the U.S., growth is expected to ease from 1.8 percent to 1.3 percent. Globally, output is projected to expand by 2.6 percent, compared with 2.9 percent this year.

Domestic demand remains a key driver of the Swiss economy. Private consumption is expected to continue benefiting from immigration and rising real wages. This year in particular, the decline of inflation toward zero has led to a noticeable increase in purchasing power. Inflation is expected to remain low at 0.5 percent in 2026. Raiffeisen continues to forecast an SNB policy rate of 0 percent by the end of 2026. Rapid interest-rate cuts and stabilizing prices have further supported demand. This is reflected, for example, in the construction sector, which has passed its lowest point.

Labor Market Stabilizing

The labor market has meanwhile stabilized. Although unemployment has risen in recent years, it is expected to remain moderate at below 3.5 percent. Job cuts in industry are expected to slow following the tariff agreement.

«The Swiss economy remains stable despite headwinds, and major setbacks are not to be expected,» the chief economist concluded.