Although many Gulf states are massively expanding their non-oil sectors, the stock markets remain closely linked to the development of «black gold.» Recently, oil has noticeably declined and is currently trading at around 62 to 63 dollars per barrel (Brent grade). This is about 14 percent lower than a year ago – with direct consequences for the benchmark indices.

Mixed Picture Across the Entire GCC Region

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) recently celebrated its 25th anniversary. However, the year is proving less euphoric for investors than the first six months suggested: the ADX General Index, which had recorded plus 11 percent in the first half of the year, now stands at only plus 4.8 percent (as of November 24, 2025). Energy and sovereign wealth fund–related stocks weighed on performance, while individual tech stocks like Presight AI (plus 18 percent) and Bayanat (plus 22 percent) bucked the trend.

The performance of other Gulf exchanges shows a fragmented picture:

• Dubai (DFM): plus 14.1 percent
  The regional leader – driven by real estate stocks like Emaar (plus 19 percent) and Deyaar (plus 27 percent), as well as strong banks (plus 11 percent).
• Saudi Arabia (TASI): plus 7.8 percent
  Solid growth thanks to banks (plus 12 percent), petrochemicals (plus 6 percent), and utilities (plus 9 percent). The energy giant Aramco remains stable at plus 4 percent.
• Qatar (QE Index): plus 6.5 percent
  Moderate gains, high dividend yield (average 4.1 percent). Industrial stocks and gas prices provide support.
• Kuwait (Premier Market): plus 5.2 percent
  Banks are driving the gains; liquidity has increased by 12 percent compared to 2024.
• Oman (MSX 30): minus 1.9 percent
  Slight losses, weak financials (minus 4 percent), low trading volumes.
• Bahrain (All Share): minus 0.8 percent
  Marginally down; still structurally the smallest market in the region.

Overall, the region shows an average performance of just under plus 5 percent, but the momentum of the first months has clearly faded.

Hope from Washington

A potential turning point could come from the USA: The Federal Reserve’s announcement that it might cut interest rates again is generating cautious optimism. Since the currencies of all Gulf states are pegged to the US dollar, the central banks from Bahrain to Oman would automatically follow this path – a potential boost for stocks and liquidity.

But also the recent phone call earlier this week between President Donald Trump and China’s head of state Xi Jinping, in which both sides reaffirmed their commitment to maintain the «good momentum» (Xi) between the world’s largest and second-largest economies, gives the Gulf states hope.

They need calm on the global trade front due to their significant and internationally connected ports in Dubai, Bahrain, and Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). During the call, Trump accepted Xi’s invitation to visit Beijing in April 2026. Both superpowers eased the trade dispute on October 30 in South Korea. The agreement, which also includes the resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans, prevents Trump’s threatened 100 percent tariff on Chinese exports and extends the trade truce until November 10, 2026.

The Year Is Not Over Yet

Fund managers should not count their chickens before they hatch: The region does not observe Christmas holidays, and there are still five trading weeks until year-end. However, for a genuine year-end rally, the oil price would have to rise again – and the geopolitical situation become at least somewhat friendlier. Furthermore, «OPEC+, which has an important meeting planned for the coming weekend, is expected to review and potentially reset quotas for each member country,» says Gary Dugan, CIO at The Global CIO Office, Dubai. Higher oil prices resulting from this could give investors in the Gulf renewed confidence.