For 2026, GDP growth is now expected at 1.1 percent compared with the previous forecast of 1.7 percent, according to an analysis published on Thursday. The forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.2 percent.

The reason for the more pessimistic outlook is the 39 percent U.S. import tariffs on Swiss goods. «We assume the currently known tariff rates as given,» the economists stated. If Switzerland were to receive more favorable treatment, the forecast would be adjusted again.

«Large parts of Swiss industry are facing a significant disadvantage in the U.S. market compared to European or Japanese competitors,» they wrote. However, the degree of impact varies strongly across sectors and companies.

«Swiss Made» Becomes a Burden

«The industries hit hardest are those where the Swiss Made label is the unique selling point – above all, the watch industry.» At the other end of the spectrum are global leaders in high-quality niche products with limited international competition.

These companies can pass on tariffs to U.S. customers and, if necessary, shift production abroad.

Incentives to Relocate

Incentives to move production will increase the longer Swiss exporters face this disadvantage. «This development will have negative consequences for the labor market and would, over time, reinforce disinflation.»

The inflation forecast currently stands at 0.2 percent for 2025 and 0.5 percent for 2026. Thus, there is no need for action by the Swiss National Bank, and key interest rates are expected to remain at 0 percent until the end of the year.