Trust vs Skepticism

The issue is a conundrum for foreign banks: they are eager to crack foreign markets, but skepticism of official data can reveal mistrust in the very institutions essential for doing so. Despite the wealth of readily available data – both official and bank proprietary – human judgment is key in interpreting official government data and policy response.

Each Asian nation obviously differs in distinctive ways that are hard to capture via purely quantitative means. From transparent liberal democracies to black-box regimes, the accuracy of reported figures will vary due to medical capabilities, counting methodologies and political drivers.

«All [our research] is done on an individual country basis – each economic team needs to make a judgment about the specific government policy response and what it implies for the economies under their coverage,» said Arend Kapteyn, global head of economics and strategy research at UBS. «There is no top-down model assumption being imposed because each country is different.»

Coronavirus Predictions

UBS said it does not specifically forecast the pandemic’s trajectory, but focuses instead on mobility restrictions and expect such measures to be lifted by the end of the second quarter based on the research of the 41 countries it tracks. Citi’s global head of healthcare research Andrew Baum expects 90 million U.S. workers (70 percent of total worker population) to return as early as mid-May, based on projections about testing kits and antibody diagnostics. 

Credit Suisse forecasts a rebound in the U.S. in the third quarter, adding that China has overcome the worst provided no second wave of cases emerges. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius echoed Credit Suisse’s views on a third-quarter rebound in the U.S. forecasting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12 percent annualized.

«However, we don't know and governments don’t know so [we] are constantly adjusting our forecasts,» UBS’s Kapteyn added, underlining the unpredictable nature of the pandemic.